According to research by global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, the world is headed for a wine shortage. Authors of the report, Australia-based analysts Tom Kierath and Crystal Wang, say that although there are a million wine producers throughout the world making 2.8 billion cases of wine per year, it’s just not enough to keep up with worldwide demand.
But before you stop reading and race out to the local wine shop to stock up, or start hoarding what you have, let’s take a look at some of the reasons you need not panic.
The report says that on-going vine pull and poor weather have contributed to a large decrease in the production of wine in Europe. Fortunately for us new world wine production is on the rise. In the United States supply is up. California’s harvest is expected to reach four million tons, nearing last year’s record. The same for South America: Chile hit a new record at 12.8 hectolitres (hl) and Argentina’s vinified harvest was 15 hl, up 27% after a poor year in 2012. New Zealand reported a record year and Australia continues to increase its production.
Even more reason to keep seeing your glass half full, is that we’ve heard this type of speculation before. In 2010 and 2011 there were reports of a scarcity in the United States, but 2012 was a record production year.
But it doesn’t end there. The International Organization of Vine and Wine has released its own report predicting an 8.8% increase in wine production, a record high for the last seven years.
And the list goes on: California is the fourth largest wine producer in the world behind France, Italy and Spain and has had 19 years of consecutive growth. Plus there has been an oversupply of wine in Europe for many years, hence the reason growers have been pulling their vines in the first place. Meanwhile, Treasury Wine Estates has dumped six million bottles of wine due to poor sales, and Italy is facing a huge drop in domestic wine sales. How can there possibly be a global wine shortage?
So rest easy, everyone. Drink and be merry. The wine will flow for the foreseeable future.